By Mackenzie Cobb ’26

The uncertain terms of an unpredictable environment, continually accelerated by unbounded emissions, will present multitudes of immigration challenges. The most vulnerable countries experiencing these increased risks have been the least guilty of mass emissions contributions and the accompanying benefits of economic and industrial superiority (Tsui et al., 2024). Still, recent research also points to an increase in immobile populations, despite worsening conditions and heightened risks (Benveniste et al, 2022). Changes in migratory flows, increased border activity, and escalating humanitarian-related issues will inevitably require significant adjustments to an already fragile global system. In the face of these elevated catastrophic risks, is there a correct way to respond? Analyzing the realities of migration and novel proposals may point to solutions that could positively impact the global population, easing away from catastrophic failures in human safety. 

The Scope of Risk 

The research involved here explores the real risks to populations around the globe, what is currently happening, and an exploration of the future. The fact that climate-induced migration has already happened, is currently happening, and will continue to happen, is an indicator that there are options. Migration itself implies that there is a better, more suitable place to exist, and thus, more people will want and/or need to settle there to survive. This does not make the very real risks that vulnerable populations are experiencing any less dangerous. The problem at hand, is that without careful and intentional efforts to address these vulnerable areas, lives will be in jeopardy. In the near term, there are regions that will continue to survive and thrive despite a changing climate, but the need to address migration and foreign assistance policy is essential to ensure that these issues do not continue to develop into potential existential threats. 

Population Distinctions 

For the purpose of this article, it is essential to distinguish between the different populations that will be affected differently by the risks associated with climate change dangers. Predicting human behavior is inherently a difficult task, and predicting high-consequence decisions such as migration is even more difficult. A multitude of factors often influences migratory choices. These can include economic, environmental, and social variables that will ultimately contribute to a decision to stay or leave a place (Black et al., 2013). Many scholars agree that climate-induced migration will increase as an adaptation technique to worsening conditions in certain areas (Held, 2016). Still, research also shows an accompanying increased likelihood of an inability to migrate due to similar socioeconomic reasons (Benveniste et al., 2021). 

Those who are able to move, the mobile population, fall into a few possible categories. Some are able to move at will, thanks to access to resources, often economic (Adger et al., 2015). This group, able to move to a new place in an attempt to adapt to a changing environment, is often referred to as a climate migrant. Those who are displaced without resources to afford relocation are often considered climate refugees. Take note, however, that the term climate refugee is oft-disputed at the governmental level, therefore limiting the availability of resources and rights to these lower-income climate-related migrants. 

Of course, in these same susceptible areas from which mobile populations emigrate, others will remain in place, by choice or necessity. Importantly, data shows a potential marked increase of 10% to 35% in resource-constrained immobility in the next 50 years (Benveniste et al., 2022). With this in mind, these immobile populations will increase while continuing to face growing pressure on the environment, inhibiting their ability to provide for their own survival.

These populations are subject to many uncertainties and often forced to endure hardships connected both to the changing conditions and the outflow of the mobile population from the area (Wilkinson et al., 2016). Even with the growing understanding of global mobility patterns and the future projections, it is necessary to ensure the immobile populations are not lost within the complicated picture of “climate migration.” 

Those who live within areas already better suited to adapt to climate change are considered receiving populations. Whether due to better climate, opportunity, accessibility, or a combination, they represent a significant factor in the overall global mobility (Adger et al., 2015). Receiving populations and their governments around the world operate differently in terms of migration and integration, and each has specific advantages and disadvantages to consider (Blake et al., 2021). Despite the numerous complex variables involved in any unique combination of mobile and receiving populations, there remains data to analyze potential avenues for addressing the situation and exploring broad ideas, recognizing that no single solution is applicable. 

Risks and Consequences 

The risks associated with climate change are often separated into two categories: direct, fast-onset, and indirect, slow-onset. These two different categories will see a fair amount of overlap, but will remain distinct in the way they affect human populations. Fast-onset events most commonly present themselves in the form of extreme weather events, such as an extreme heatwave, a devastating storm, or floods. Slow-onset events are those that develop over time, causing irreparable damage (Tsui et al., 2024). These events are often more complicated and influenced by a variety of factors. Some of the larger risks these events pose are increased average temperatures, drought-induced desertification, and rising sea levels. In addition to this, these events will also put pressure on fragile systems, leading to subsequent risks like resource depletion, poverty, disease, and regional instability (Uexkull and Buhaug, 2021). 

These detrimental changes play a significant role in migration patterns around the world. From nomadic tribes to seasonal farmers, the practice of relocating to find a more suitable location is not a new phenomenon (McLeman, 2018). The difference now is current data and extrapolated models, signaling extreme changes in the landscape that have never been seen in recorded history (Uexkull and Buhaug, 2021). There will be large swathes of land that will not recover from the changes in desertification, sea level, or agricultural demise due to drought. Likely, these unprecedented changes will lead to fluctuations in migratory patterns (Blake et al., 2021). Danger is ever-present in both staying and leaving, but the risks begin to split for mobile and immobile populations. Both mobile and immobile populations will face dangerous circumstances, but they also have an immense opportunity to gain or lose. The outcome often depends on the systems in place to address these issues and assist the populations experiencing them. These situations present an opportunity to strengthen the global system, keep people safe, and adapt to the changing world. 

Despite the risks, there is evidence that migration can benefit the mobile, immobile, and receiving populations in adapting to climate change (Wilkinson et al., 2016). Research indicates that migrants who can move to a community where they have previous connections or a shared background are more likely to experience a safe and secure transition (Waters, 2025). Economic data indicates that migration makes the world richer on average, reduces inequalities in most destinations, and assists immobile populations in originating countries, often through remittances (Benveniste et al., 2021). Incoming migrants are also proven to strengthen local job markets, complementing local businesses and creating demand for goods and services provided by established businesses (Braga & Elliot, 2023). Analysis from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of long-term data shows that influxes of both “low-skill” and “high-skill” migrants increased overall income per person in the receiving country (Karakas, 2017). These figures do not diminish the struggle of immigrants and the receiving countries, but rather point to the mutual advantages of successful migration. 

While this evidence is essential, it doesn’t indicate an equilibrium of exactly how much migration is beneficial before it may begin to experience diminishing returns. Remittances sent from immigrants back to their home country can provide a significant positive impact on improving the immobile population communities’ ability to survive (Cattaneo et al., 2019). Considering this, providing migrants with a streamlined system to integrate into a receiving country can, in theory, lessen the economic struggle for the home population, thus diminishing the need for more people to migrate. 

Addressing the Issues 

In 2021, RAND published Addressing Climate Migration: A Review of National Policy Approaches. In this report, they highlighted that exact estimates of climate impact and migration models vary widely. Despite this, they do stress that climate change will present a significant shift to human mobility and the risks involved. Stressing five policy frames (security, rights, development, culture, resilience) and five policy types (mobility control, social protection, infrastructure, government reform, and planned relocation), the report works to make a holistic picture of national response and how it can be molded to accommodate a changing world. They stressed the importance of nations adopting a “climate migration strategy” to bring attention to the issues at hand and in the future. They conclude that migration to and from countries can have either positive or negative impacts, depending on the readiness and resilience of the community. In the final recommendations, they urge country leadership to “integrate climate mobility considerations into a variety of other policies and adopt climate-specific policies where necessary” (Blake et al., 2021). In short, recommendations urged governments to take migration problems and solutions into account separately from climate change. Distinguishing the human focused effects alongside but separately from the environmental effects, allows more succinct and effective policy discussion and implementation. 

Relevant Historical Precedent 

Published in Sustainability in 2024, Dr. Paul Clements’ article International Climate Migrant Policy and Estimates of Climate Migration addresses the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) directly with recommendations about how to handle climate-induced migration. Clements begins by criticizing the reliance on the World Bank’s recent Groundswell Report on climate migration, suggesting that the estimated maximum of 216 million climate migrants by 2050 is dangerously low, proposing that, based on his analysis, that number could reach up to 500 million depending on socio-economic variables (Clements, 2024). Clements emphasizes the combination of fast and slow onset events that will continue to accelerate in the near future as a catalyst for this change. The article suggests that this time in history can be viewed as a convergence of tipping points that requires a novel solution, similar to the founding of the Global Environmental Facility in the late 1980s after inadequate attention given to environmental issues, and the creation of the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) to battle the AIDS crisis across the developing world (Clements, 2024). Clements closes by reinforcing the idea that “advanced countries bear obligations to climate migrants due to their disproportionate responsibility for climate change, helping climate migrants to rebuild their lives in their home countries is also in advanced countries’ political interest (Clements, 2024), and urges the UNFCCC to create a separate category to undertake climate migration, just as it does for establishing policy involving climate adaptation and mitigation. 

Mobility Messaging and Weaponization of Ideology 

In most countries, political affiliation and the linked media representation have shown an outsized effect on beliefs regarding climate and immigration policy (Raimi et al., 2024). In Italy, for example, led by a right-wing government, there is a campaign known as “domestication” of climate issues, meant to simplify and narrow the scope of climate change evidence to use toward justification in border militarization and immigration control (Birchall & Kehler, 2023). Legislative decision-makers across the world utilize discretion and denial as justification to enforce the status quo, in most cases entrenching institutions in a gridlock unable to legitimately consider novel adaptation techniques (Birchall & Kehler, 2023). The right-wing government in Italy has been fleeting in its messaging, abandoning the outright denial of global climate change and its relationship with migrants. Instead, it presents a new view that offers migrants as a scapegoat in many Italian homefront issues, such as overpopulation and environmental degradation (Birchall & Kehler, 2023). Others outside the government have disparaged this effort as manipulative and a threat to the democratic institutions of the world (Kapelner, 2024).

In some cases, hostile messaging toward migrant populations is blatant, but research also shows that more subtle messaging can affect overall attitudes toward migration. In general, it is demonstrated that receiving populations tend to be more sympathetic toward “forced” migrants than “voluntary” migrants (Banulescu-Bogdan, 2024). The politicization of messaging, using climate change, immigration, or a combination of the two, has muddied the waters for public perception of the topic. The good news is that research shows that the majority of public opinion on these issues is not fixed at any one point (Banulescu-Bogdan, 2024). The malleability of perception can be mobilized in various ways, but ensuring a clear and concise message about the facts can allow for a more effective mode of communication. 

Resilience and Governance 

Resilient infrastructure to combat potentially lethal weather events and innovative crop adjustments allow continued resource management for countries inflicted with environmental degradation. Implementation of sustainable and affordable infrastructure has begun in extreme heat susceptible areas with vulnerable populations (Jay et al., 2021) but must be accelerated to provide measurable impact. Foreign aid has been shown to be effective in providing assistance to developing countries that are limited in resources. Still, improper governance has also been shown to hinder the success of aid (Acheampong, 2025). Factors such as corruption, stability, and access all contribute to the indicators of governance. Proposals to pair assistance packages with positive governance indicators show promise in providing effective aid to help populations in need (Acheampong, 2025). In this system, foreign aid can be spent more accurately, ensuring an increase in resilient infrastructure and providing much-needed assistance to immobile communities, thereby lessening the associated risks and the need for emigration from these countries. 

Conclusion 

Understanding the risks of climate change is critical to a humane world belief. The best approach to this problem is to strike a balance between understanding the many dimensions of the matter and not allowing the ever-growing complications and intricacies to hinder action toward better policy and action. Right now, the worst action is inaction. An aggressive campaign to prepare countries for climate change and the inevitable migration from vulnerable countries is necessary to save millions of lives. Building strong and resilient systems and infrastructure in developing countries is the first step in securing safety. Second, properly preparing receiving countries by establishing services and programs for migrants and also working to integrate migrants from vulnerable populations successfully now, will ease the burden and stress on the receiving country. Perhaps eventually, the world can align with the idea that solidarity in planetary action is required, emerging from a consistent distrust to form one single institution meant to better the planet for all those who inhabit it. There is still no doubt that there is a moral obligation to fight for a better world for all.

Contributors: Juliana Christine de Aguiar Abreu ‘28 and Evan Kim ‘28 Photo Credit: Getty Images